As we move forward, the ability to discern genuine market signals from manipulative noise will be paramount. The insights gleaned from analyzing the DXY, TNX, IEF, and the charts of TMF, EEM, and GLD provide a framework for navigating the complexities of the current environment.
If January felt like a fever dream, February’s turning up the heat—and the smoke and mirrors. The market’s humming, but something’s off.
2025 is here and off to an interesting start, with a new administration, frequent policy changes, new appointees in critical roles, and the long-anticipated effects of easing monetary policy finally showing up in the charts.
It’s been three weeks since the election, and we’ve seen a significant market reaction. It seems the changes to monetary policy finally decided to show up in certain areas while not in others.
All year in From The Trading Couch(FTTC), we’ve discussed upcoming policy changes and examined interest rate-sensitive sectors, bond yields, and the U.S. dollar (USD). We reviewed different cycles to gauge what to expect moving forward. Now that rates have been cut, why aren’t markets reacting as expected? Why are mortgage rates rising? Is it different this time?
The effects of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts are becoming more apparent, especially as China has rapidly responded with massive economic stimulus measures.
After nearly three years of navigating through scary headlines, the moment we’ve been preparing for is here—monetary policy change is happening.